Following on from last Saturday’s geopolitics, it's no surprise that markets have gone through a see-saw. With safe haven assets shooting up.
Overall, Q2 and the 1H of 2023 has been rewarding for portfolios
There is a clear change in sentiment around a Hard landing vs a Soft landing. The latter is gaining traction.
This market update centres around inflation, particularly within the US and China. As well as this, wages and energy prices are discussed.
Once again, we have witnessed bond market volatility this week and it began on Thursday with the release of the ADP employment data...
Following last weekend’s events in Russia, nothing has changed – at least on the surface and beyond Russian borders.
Events in Russia over the past 24 hours have been extraordinary, while earlier in the week UK May inflation proved highly stubborn.
Following a two-week absence, it’s interesting to see if anything has materially changed on the big picture front. The short answer is not much.
This weekly is on the early side and I am wary of what Friday brings, especially as the debt ceiling saga gives rise to further bond market volatility.
It had been a risk-on (more of a relief) rally last week driven primarily by one thing: the start of a possible end in sight to the debt ceiling saga.
Central Banks remain divided on future rate action, which alongside the US Debt Ceiling, US SLOOS and Inflation, are this week's drivers of uncertainty.
As expected, the Fed raised rates +0.25% to a band of 5.00% to 5.25%. It was always about the wording that followed
This week sees further earnings announcements, especially around banks. Analyst calls show large banks have not yet materially tightened lending standards
2023 started off playing towards a cautiously bullish outlook. With clear signs of a risk-on rally, falling energy prices proved good news for inflation.
A week of cautious risk-on, as Money Market & Global Equity funds drew massive inflows. Communications, staples & financials were the main beneficiaries.
Just when Central Bankers thought stability might be forming around inflation, OPEC+ dropped a clanger and announced production cuts.
After the events of the past couple of weeks, we saw some calm return to markets as intervention attempts to stem deposit outflows seemed to be working.
With Credit Suisse rescued, attentions switched to Deutsche Bank whose shares fell last week. Its CDS spiked to over 2.20% amid stability worries.
Rate hikes, eruption and talks of collapse.
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